Forex Market Hours - Forex Market Time Converter

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Thoughts On The Market Series #1 - The New Normal?

Market Outlook: What to Make of This “New Normal”

By ****\*
March 16, 2020
After an incredibly volatile week – which finished with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallying over 9% on Friday – I suppose my readers might expect me to be quite upbeat about the markets.
Unfortunately, I persist in my overall pessimistic outlook for stocks, and for the economy in general. Friday’s rally essentially negated Thursday’s sell-off, but I don’t expect it to be the start of a sustained turnaround.
We’re getting a taste of that this morning, with the Dow opening down around 7%.
This selloff is coming on the back of an emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve of 100 basis points (to 0%-0.25%) on Sunday… along with the announcement of a new quantitative easing program of $700 billion. (I will write about this further over the next several days.)
As I have been writing for many weeks, the financial bubble – which the Fed created by pumping trillions of dollars into the financial system – has popped. It will take some time for the bubble to deflate to sustainable levels.
Today I’ll walk you through what’s going on in the markets and the economy… what I expect going forward and why… and what it means for us as traders. (You’ll see it’s not all bad news.)

Coronavirus’ Strain on the Global Economy

To start, let’s put things in perspective: This asset deflation was coming one way or another. Covid19 (or coronavirus) has simply accelerated the process.
Major retailers are closing, tourism is getting crushed, universities and schools are sending students home, conventions, sporting events, concerts, and other public gatherings have been cancelled, banks and other financial service firms are going largely virtual, and there has been a massive loss of wealth.
Restaurant data suggests that consumer demand is dropping sharply, and the global travel bans will only worsen the situation.
Commercial real estate is another sector that looks particularly vulnerable. We are almost certain to see a very sharp and pronounced economic slowdown here in the United States, and elsewhere. In fact, I expect a drop of at least 5% of GDP over the next two quarters, which is quite severe by any standard.
Sure, when this cycle is complete, there will be tremendous amounts of pent-up demand by consumers, but for the time being, the consumer is largely on the sidelines.
Of course, the problems aren’t just in the U.S. China’s numbers look awful. In fact, the government there may have to “massage” their numbers a bit to show a positive GDP in the first quarter. Europe’s numbers will also look dreadful, and South Korea’s economy has been hit badly.
All around the world, borders are being shut, all non-essential businesses are being closed, and people in multiple countries are facing a lockdown of historic proportions. The coronavirus is certainly having a powerful impact, and it looks certain that its impact will persist for a while.
Consider global tourism. It added almost $9 trillion to the global economy in 2018, and roughly 320 million jobs. This market is in serious trouble.
Fracking in the U.S. is another business sector that is in a desperate situation. Millions of jobs and tens of billions of loans are now in jeopardy.
The derivative businesses that this sector supports will be likewise devastated as companies are forced to reduce their workforces or shut down due to the collapse in oil prices. This sector’s suffering will probably force banks to book some big losses despite attempts by the government to support this industry.
In a similar way, the derivative businesses that are supported by the universities and colleges across America are going to really suffer.
There are nearly 20 million students in colleges across the U.S. When they go home for spring vacation and do not return, the effect on the local businesses that colleges and university populations support will be devastating.
What does this “new normal” mean going forward? Let’s take a look…

New Normal

The new normal may become increasingly unpleasant for us. We need to be ready to hunker down for quite some time.
Beyond that, the government needs to handle this crisis far better in the future.
The level of stupidity associated with the massive throngs of people trapped in major airports yesterday, for example, was almost unimaginable.
Instead of facilitating the reduction of social contact and halting the further spread of the coronavirus, the management of the crowds at the airports produced a perfect breeding ground for the spread of the virus.
My guess is that more draconian travel restrictions will be implemented soon, matching to some extent the measures taken across Europe.
This will in turn have a further dampening effect on economic activity in the U.S., putting more and more pressure on the Fed and the government to artificially support a rapidly weakening economy.
Where does this end up? It is too early to say, but a very safe bet is that we will have some months of sharply negative growth. Too many sectors of the economy are going to take a hit to expect anything else.
The Fed has already driven interest rates to zero. Will that help? Unlikely. In fact, as I mentioned at the beginning of this update, the markets are voting with a resounding NO.
The businesses that are most affected by the current economic situation will still suffer. Quantitative easing is hardly a cure-all. In fact, it has been one of the reasons that we have such a mess in our markets today.
The markets have become addicted to the easy money, so more of the same will have little or no impact. We will need real economic demand, not an easier monetary policy.
It won’t help support tourism, for example, or the other sectors getting smashed right now. The government will need to spend at least 5% of GDP, or roughly $1 trillion, to offset the weakness I see coming.
Is it surprising that the Fed and the government take emergency steps to try to stabilize economic growth? Not at all. This is essentially what they have been doing for a long time, so it is completely consistent with their playbook.
Next, I would anticipate the government implementing some massive public-works and infrastructure programs over the coming months. That would be very helpful, and almost certainly quite necessary.
But there’s a problem with this kind of intervention from the government…

What Happens When You Eliminate the Business Cycle

The Fed’s foolish attempt to eliminate business cycles is a significant contributing factor to the volatility we are currently experiencing.
Quantitative easing is nothing more than printing lots and lots of money to support a weak economy and give the appearance of growth and prosperity. In fact, it is a devaluation of the currency’s true buying power.
That in turn artificially drives up the prices of other assets, such as stocks, real estate and gold – but it does not create true wealth. That only comes with non-inflationary growth of goods and services and associated increases in economic output.
Inflation is the government’s way to keep people thinking they are doing better.
To that point: We have seen some traditional safe-haven assets getting destroyed during this time of risk aversion. That has certainly compounded the problems of many investors.
Gold is a great example. As the stock market got violently slammed, people were forced to come up with cash to support their losing positions. Gold became a short-term source of liquidity as people sold their gold holdings in somewhat dramatic fashion. It was one of the few holdings of many people that was not dramatically under water, so people sold it.
The move may have seemed perverse, particularly to people who bought gold as a safe-haven asset, but in times of crisis, all assets tend to become highly correlated, at least short term.
We saw a similar thing happen with long yen exposures and long Bitcoin exposures recently.
The dollar had its strongest one-day rally against the yen since November 2016 as people were forced to sell huge amounts of yen to generate liquidity. Many speculators had made some nice profits recently as the dollar dropped sharply from 112 to 101.30, but they have been forced to book whatever profits they had in this position. Again, this was due to massive losses elsewhere in their portfolios.
Is the yen’s sell-off complete? If it is not complete, it is probably at least close to an attractive level for Japanese investors to start buying yen against a basket of currencies. The major supplies of yen have largely been taken off the table for now.
For example, the yen had been a popular funding currency for “carry” plays. People were selling yen and buying higher-yielding currencies to earn the interest rate difference between the liability currency (yen) and the funding currency (for example, the U.S. dollar).
Carry plays are very unpopular in times of great uncertainty and volatility, however, so that supply of yen will be largely gone for quite some time. Plus, the yield advantage of currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar versus the yen is nearly gone.
In addition, at the end of the Japanese fiscal year , there is usually heavy demand for yen as Japanese corporations need to bring home a portion of their overseas holdings for balance sheet window dressing. I don’t expect that pressure to be different this year.
Just as the safe-haven assets of yen and gold got aggressively sold, Bitcoin also got hammered. It was driven by a similar theme – people had big losses and they needed to produce liquidity quickly. Selling Bitcoin became one of the sources of that liquidity.

Heavy Price Deflation Ahead

Overall, there is a chance that this scenario turns into something truly ugly, with sustained price deflation across many parts of the economy. We will certainly have price deflation in many sectors, at least on a temporary basis.
Why does that matter over the long term?
Price deflation is the most debilitating economic development in a society that is debt-laden – like the U.S. today. Prices of assets come down… and the debt becomes progressively bigger and bigger.
The balance sheet of oil company Chesapeake Energy is a classic example. It’s carrying almost $10 billion worth of debt… versus a market cap of only about $600 million. Talk about leverage! When the company had a market cap of $10 billion, that debt level didn’t appear so terrifying.
Although this is an extreme example for illustrative purposes, the massive debt loads of China would seem more and more frightening if we were to sink into flat or negative growth cycles for a while. The government’s resources are already being strained, and it can artificially support only so many failing companies.
The U.S. has gigantic levels of debt as well, but it has the advantage of being the world’s true hegemon, and the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. This creates a tremendous amount of leverage and power in financing its debt.
The U.S. has been able to impose its will on its trading partners to trade major commodities in dollars. This has created a constant demand for the dollar that offsets, to a large extent, the massive trade deficit that the U.S. runs.
For example, if a German company wants to buy oil, then it needs to hold dollars. This creates a constant demand for dollar assets.
In short, the dollar’s status as the true global reserve currency is far more important than most people realize. China does not hold this advantage.

What to Do Now

In terms of how to position ourselves going forward, I strongly recommend that people continue with a defensive attitude regarding stocks. There could be a lot more downside to come. Likewise, we could see some panic selling in other asset classes.
The best thing right now is to be liquid and patient, ready to pounce on special opportunities when they present themselves.
For sure, there will be some exceptional opportunities, but it is too early to commit ourselves to just one industry. These opportunities could come in diverse sectors such as commercial real estate, hospitality, travel and leisure, and others.
As for the forex markets, the volatility in the currencies is extreme, so we are a bit cautious.
I still like the yen as a safe-haven asset. I likewise still want to sell the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar as liability currencies.
Why? The Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have all taken aggressive steps recently, slashing interest rates. These currencies are all weak, and they will get weaker.
Finding an ideal entry for a trade, however, is tricky. Therefore, we are being extra careful with our trading. We always prioritize the preservation of capital over generating profits, and we will continue with this premise.
At the same time, volatility in the markets is fantastic for traders. We expect many excellent opportunities to present themselves over the coming days and weeks as prices get driven to extreme levels and mispricings appear. So stay tuned.
submitted by ParallaxFX to Forex [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 15th, 2019

Hey what's happening wallstreetbets! Good morning and happy Saturday to all of you on this subreddit. I hope everyone made out pretty nicely in the market last week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 15th, 2019.

Some optimistic corporate outlooks in the week ahead could lift the stock market to a record - (Source)

It’s now up to corporate America to reveal whether the U.S. economy simply hit a soft patch this winter, as many suspect, or is on the verge of falling into an even deeper rut.
Earnings from a broad swath of industries, like financials, technology, transportation and consumer products roll out in the coming week as the first-quarter earnings season gets underway. According to Refinitiv, earnings are expected to decline 2.3 percent in the first negative quarter in three years, but it is business leaders’ comments on the future outlook that are even more important.
Commentary and guidance is always a big deal, but this quarter it is critical. Analysts do not agree on whether the first quarter earnings season represents the trough, or even whether the second quarter will see a gain or decline in profit growth.
At the same time, economic data, like March’s jobs report, are beginning to turn more positive, and first quarter growth has quickly gone from forecasts of nearly flattish back in January to now around 2%, on the back of better March releases. The economic data has been uneven, in part because of the government shutdown, but it has yet to prove the economy is back on track.
“The market has been very sensitive to data that’s been picking up. The market is reflecting that, even though there’s talk of an earnings recession. What you don’t want is an earnings recession leading to an economic recession. If companies believe there’s a major downturn in revenue growth, they stop spending and ultimately they fire people and that leads to a recession,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.
The stock market is also at an important inflection point, with the major indexes closing in on all-time highs. The S&P 500 pressed through 2,900 Friday, seen as a point of psychological resistance. The S&P ended the week at 2,907, for a weekly gain of 0.5%. The next target traders are watching is the closing high 2,930 on the S&P. The all-time high was an intraday 2,940, reached on Sept. 21.
Earnings season got off to a good start with J.P. Morgan Chase’s quarterly earnings report Friday. CEO Jamie Dimon was very positive, saying the U.S. economy’s expansion “could go on for years.”
“If you look at the American economy, the consumer is in good shape, balance sheets are in good shape, people are going back to the workforce, companies have plenty of capital,” Dimon told analysts during a conference call. J.P. Morgan stock rose sharply, after its record profits beat analysts’ expectations.
“Positive guidance, that’s what the market needs. [The S&P] could cross 2,900, but then again it could pull back,” said Krosby, but she said the momentum has been pointing higher. “The market has basically been endorsing 2,900 and beyond.”
Krosby said important upcoming economic reports include Empire State and Philadelphia Fed surveys Monday and Thursday respectively, for a current look at manufacturing activity in New York and the Mid-Atlantic region. There is also industrial production and retail sales Tuesday.
“Jobs data was strong. Everybody was really negative on the economy, and now we’re getting pleasant surprises,” said Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex chief market strategist. The economy added 196,000 jobs in March, bringing the monthly average to 180,000 over the past three months, even with February’s shockingly low 33,000 payrolls.
Chandler said industrial production and other data should show an improved trend over last month.
As stocks have shaken off growth fears, bond yields have also moved higher. The 10-year Treasury note was yielding 2.55% Friday, well above the lows of 2.34% reached on March 28.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR CHART LINK #2!)

Typical April Trading: Mid-Month Surge Stronger Second Half

Over the recent 21 years April is the top-ranked month for DJIA. April ranks #3 S&P 500, #5 for NASDAQ, #2 for Russell 1000 and #4 for Russell 2000. Average gains over the period range from a low of 1.19% by NASDAQ to a respectable 2.29% by DJIA. The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. In fact the second half of April is stronger over the recent 21-year period.
Early April trading is usually positive for the first 4 days then flattens off until mid-month. Then the market tends to surge from the tenth to the fifteenth trading days. DJIA tends to close out the month strongest with NASDAQ closing weakest.
Except for DJIA weighed down by Boeing (BA), stocks are having an above average month so far, which is quite typical in Pre-Election years where April has tended to be even stronger.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Bode Well For Equities

Earlier today on our Twitter account, we retweeted a chart from Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal of inverted Jobless Claims versus the S&P 500. We have used this chart as an argument for the bullish case for the past several years. As we mentioned in a blog post this morning, Initial Jobless Claims came in earlier this week with a sizable drop off, down to 196K versus last week's revised 204K and expectations of 210K. This week's print was not only a new low for the current cycle, it is also the lowest reading since 1969. That sort of new low could be a good sign for equities. As shown in the chart below, claims and the S&P have mirrored each other since bottoming following the financial crisis. (In the chart, we have inverted claims on the right axis.) As the S&P 500 inches its way back towards all time highs, so has claims towards new lows. Additionally, with recent low prints for claims bucking what had previously appeared to be an upside trend reversal, the bullish case for the S&P 500 is growing.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Optimism Growing Again

The American Association of Individual Investors updated their weekly investor sentiment survey this morning and the results are very similar to the final days of February with bullish sentiment around 40%, bearish down near 20%, and neutral once again in the upper 30's. Up from 35.02% last week, bullish sentiment has crossed back over the 40% threshold; the first time it has done so since the previously mentioned week in February. While bullish sentiment is sitting a couple of points above the historical average, this is still several percentage points from reaching any sort of extreme level (more than one standard deviation above the aforementioned average). For that to happen, bullish sentiment would have to come in above 48.36%. If that occurs, then it could be a sign that investors are getting a little too optimistic.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Bearish sentiment, on the other hand, fell all the way back down to 20.38% this week, the lowest since its 20% reading on February 28th. That is around 10% less than the historical average for bearish sentiment. That is also at the lower end of the range bearish sentiment has stayed within in the past decade.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Neutral sentiment has still yet to have moved above or below the upper 30's coming in at 39.33% this week after falling from similar levels down to 36.71% last week. That is the third time in the past month that neutral sentiment has come in between 39% and 40%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The December Low Indicator Has Bulls Smiling

After the best first quarter for the S&P 500 Index since 1998, the big question is: What happens next? We’ve already discussed why a good start to a year could lead to more gains (here and here), but today we will take a look at another potentially positive signal.
The December Low Indicator was created in the 1970s by Lucien Hooper, a former Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst. Simply put, the indicator says that if the S&P 500 closes beneath the December low during the first quarter, it’s a warning sign for potential weakness over the balance of the year. The flipside is if it doesn’t, good times could be coming. Given the S&P 500 just went all of the first quarter without closing beneath the December 24 low, it’s worth taking a deeper dive.
Sure enough, there appears to be some truth to this concept. “The December low indicator seems quite simple, but it has a tremendous track record,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When the S&P 500 stays above the December lows throughout the first quarter, the full year has been higher an incredible 34 out of the last 34 times, which bodes well for 2019.” In fact, this warning even worked last year, as it triggered in the first quarter of 2018 and eventually played out during the big fourth quarter sell-off.
As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, when the S&P 500 stays above the December lows in the first quarter, the full year does quite well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for April 12th, 2019

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Are Stocks Going UP Next Week? | Earnings Season Kick-Off! | ShadowTrader Video 04.14.19

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $NFLX
  • $BAC
  • $C
  • $GS
  • $UNH
  • $JNJ
  • $APHA
  • $PIXY
  • $SCHW
  • $MTB
  • $PGR
  • $IBM
  • $ABT
  • $MS
  • $PEP
  • $BLK
  • $CMA
  • $TEAM
  • $CSX
  • $KMI
  • $AA
  • $URI
  • $ERIC
  • $WIT
  • $KSU
  • $UAL
  • $PLD
  • $ASML
  • $USB
  • $BK
  • $TXT
  • $FHN
  • $JBHT
  • $ISRG
  • $PNFP
  • $PIR
  • $LVS
  • $MLNX
  • $MBWM
  • $CCI
  • $SKX
  • $BMI
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY MORNING'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 4.15.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 4.15.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 4.16.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 4.16.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 4.17.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 4.17.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 4.18.19 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
N/A.

Thursday 4.18.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
N/A.

Friday 4.19.19 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF GOOD FRIDAY).

Friday 4.19.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF GOOD FRIDAY).

Netflix, Inc. $351.14

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $4.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.56 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.94% with revenue increasing by 21.32%. Short interest has increased by 10.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.2% above its 200 day moving average of $336.83. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,925 contracts of the $400.00 call expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Bank of America Corp. $30.17

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $23.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.84% with revenue decreasing by 14.11%. Short interest has decreased by 25.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.3% above its 200 day moving average of $28.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 9, 2019 there was some notable buying of 32,141 contracts of the $27.00 put and 32,059 contracts of the $32.00 call expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Citigroup, Inc. $67.42

Citigroup, Inc. (C) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.78 per share on revenue of $18.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.95% with revenue decreasing by 22.15%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.2% above its 200 day moving average of $65.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, March 29, 2019 there was some notable buying of 17,657 contracts of the $59.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. $207.84

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:40 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.74 per share on revenue of $8.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.80% with revenue decreasing by 10.62%. Short interest has increased by 9.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.1% below its 200 day moving average of $208.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 6,817 contracts of the $220.00 call and 5,555 contracts of the $195.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

UnitedHealth Group, Inc. $223.22

UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:55 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.59 per share on revenue of $59.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.09% with revenue increasing by 8.10%. Short interest has decreased by 1.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.4% below its 200 day moving average of $257.63. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,190 contracts of the $227.50 call and 3,732 contracts of the $227.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Johnson & Johnson $135.98

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.03 per share on revenue of $19.63 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.46% with revenue decreasing by 1.89%. Short interest has decreased by 22.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.0% above its 200 day moving average of $134.65. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,510 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 1.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aphria Inc. $10.10

Aphria Inc. (APHA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:05 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $41.11 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 26.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 57.1% from its open following the earnings release. On Thursday, April 11, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,595 contracts of the $9.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

ShiftPixy, Inc. $1.20

ShiftPixy, Inc. (PIXY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $14.84 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 88.16%. Short interest has decreased by 14.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 34.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 54.0% below its 200 day moving average of $2.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 27.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Charles Schwab Corp. $45.35

Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:45 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $2.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 20.00% with revenue increasing by 12.59%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.8% below its 200 day moving average of $47.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,000 contracts of the $43.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

M&T Bank Corp $167.76

M&T Bank Corp (MTB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:35 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.29 per share on revenue of $1.50 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.90% with revenue decreasing by 2.65%. Short interest has decreased by 2.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% above its 200 day moving average of $165.09. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 841 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week ahead?
Have a fantastic Sunday and a great trading week ahead to everyone here on wallstreetbets!
submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 15th, 2019

Hey what's happening StockMarket! Good morning and happy Saturday to all of you on this subreddit. I hope everyone made out pretty nicely in the market last week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 15th, 2019.

Some optimistic corporate outlooks in the week ahead could lift the stock market to a record - (Source)

It’s now up to corporate America to reveal whether the U.S. economy simply hit a soft patch this winter, as many suspect, or is on the verge of falling into an even deeper rut.
Earnings from a broad swath of industries, like financials, technology, transportation and consumer products roll out in the coming week as the first-quarter earnings season gets underway. According to Refinitiv, earnings are expected to decline 2.3 percent in the first negative quarter in three years, but it is business leaders’ comments on the future outlook that are even more important.
Commentary and guidance is always a big deal, but this quarter it is critical. Analysts do not agree on whether the first quarter earnings season represents the trough, or even whether the second quarter will see a gain or decline in profit growth.
At the same time, economic data, like March’s jobs report, are beginning to turn more positive, and first quarter growth has quickly gone from forecasts of nearly flattish back in January to now around 2%, on the back of better March releases. The economic data has been uneven, in part because of the government shutdown, but it has yet to prove the economy is back on track.
“The market has been very sensitive to data that’s been picking up. The market is reflecting that, even though there’s talk of an earnings recession. What you don’t want is an earnings recession leading to an economic recession. If companies believe there’s a major downturn in revenue growth, they stop spending and ultimately they fire people and that leads to a recession,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.
The stock market is also at an important inflection point, with the major indexes closing in on all-time highs. The S&P 500 pressed through 2,900 Friday, seen as a point of psychological resistance. The S&P ended the week at 2,907, for a weekly gain of 0.5%. The next target traders are watching is the closing high 2,930 on the S&P. The all-time high was an intraday 2,940, reached on Sept. 21.
Earnings season got off to a good start with J.P. Morgan Chase’s quarterly earnings report Friday. CEO Jamie Dimon was very positive, saying the U.S. economy’s expansion “could go on for years.”
“If you look at the American economy, the consumer is in good shape, balance sheets are in good shape, people are going back to the workforce, companies have plenty of capital,” Dimon told analysts during a conference call. J.P. Morgan stock rose sharply, after its record profits beat analysts’ expectations.
“Positive guidance, that’s what the market needs. [The S&P] could cross 2,900, but then again it could pull back,” said Krosby, but she said the momentum has been pointing higher. “The market has basically been endorsing 2,900 and beyond.”
Krosby said important upcoming economic reports include Empire State and Philadelphia Fed surveys Monday and Thursday respectively, for a current look at manufacturing activity in New York and the Mid-Atlantic region. There is also industrial production and retail sales Tuesday.
“Jobs data was strong. Everybody was really negative on the economy, and now we’re getting pleasant surprises,” said Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex chief market strategist. The economy added 196,000 jobs in March, bringing the monthly average to 180,000 over the past three months, even with February’s shockingly low 33,000 payrolls.
Chandler said industrial production and other data should show an improved trend over last month.
As stocks have shaken off growth fears, bond yields have also moved higher. The 10-year Treasury note was yielding 2.55% Friday, well above the lows of 2.34% reached on March 28.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR CHART LINK #2!)

Typical April Trading: Mid-Month Surge Stronger Second Half

Over the recent 21 years April is the top-ranked month for DJIA. April ranks #3 S&P 500, #5 for NASDAQ, #2 for Russell 1000 and #4 for Russell 2000. Average gains over the period range from a low of 1.19% by NASDAQ to a respectable 2.29% by DJIA. The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. In fact the second half of April is stronger over the recent 21-year period.
Early April trading is usually positive for the first 4 days then flattens off until mid-month. Then the market tends to surge from the tenth to the fifteenth trading days. DJIA tends to close out the month strongest with NASDAQ closing weakest.
Except for DJIA weighed down by Boeing (BA), stocks are having an above average month so far, which is quite typical in Pre-Election years where April has tended to be even stronger.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Bode Well For Equities

Earlier today on our Twitter account, we retweeted a chart from Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal of inverted Jobless Claims versus the S&P 500. We have used this chart as an argument for the bullish case for the past several years. As we mentioned in a blog post this morning, Initial Jobless Claims came in earlier this week with a sizable drop off, down to 196K versus last week's revised 204K and expectations of 210K. This week's print was not only a new low for the current cycle, it is also the lowest reading since 1969. That sort of new low could be a good sign for equities. As shown in the chart below, claims and the S&P have mirrored each other since bottoming following the financial crisis. (In the chart, we have inverted claims on the right axis.) As the S&P 500 inches its way back towards all time highs, so has claims towards new lows. Additionally, with recent low prints for claims bucking what had previously appeared to be an upside trend reversal, the bullish case for the S&P 500 is growing.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Optimism Growing Again

The American Association of Individual Investors updated their weekly investor sentiment survey this morning and the results are very similar to the final days of February with bullish sentiment around 40%, bearish down near 20%, and neutral once again in the upper 30's. Up from 35.02% last week, bullish sentiment has crossed back over the 40% threshold; the first time it has done so since the previously mentioned week in February. While bullish sentiment is sitting a couple of points above the historical average, this is still several percentage points from reaching any sort of extreme level (more than one standard deviation above the aforementioned average). For that to happen, bullish sentiment would have to come in above 48.36%. If that occurs, then it could be a sign that investors are getting a little too optimistic.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Bearish sentiment, on the other hand, fell all the way back down to 20.38% this week, the lowest since its 20% reading on February 28th. That is around 10% less than the historical average for bearish sentiment. That is also at the lower end of the range bearish sentiment has stayed within in the past decade.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Neutral sentiment has still yet to have moved above or below the upper 30's coming in at 39.33% this week after falling from similar levels down to 36.71% last week. That is the third time in the past month that neutral sentiment has come in between 39% and 40%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The December Low Indicator Has Bulls Smiling

After the best first quarter for the S&P 500 Index since 1998, the big question is: What happens next? We’ve already discussed why a good start to a year could lead to more gains (here and here), but today we will take a look at another potentially positive signal.
The December Low Indicator was created in the 1970s by Lucien Hooper, a former Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst. Simply put, the indicator says that if the S&P 500 closes beneath the December low during the first quarter, it’s a warning sign for potential weakness over the balance of the year. The flipside is if it doesn’t, good times could be coming. Given the S&P 500 just went all of the first quarter without closing beneath the December 24 low, it’s worth taking a deeper dive.
Sure enough, there appears to be some truth to this concept. “The December low indicator seems quite simple, but it has a tremendous track record,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When the S&P 500 stays above the December lows throughout the first quarter, the full year has been higher an incredible 34 out of the last 34 times, which bodes well for 2019.” In fact, this warning even worked last year, as it triggered in the first quarter of 2018 and eventually played out during the big fourth quarter sell-off.
As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, when the S&P 500 stays above the December lows in the first quarter, the full year does quite well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for April 12th, 2019

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Are Stocks Going UP Next Week? | Earnings Season Kick-Off! | ShadowTrader Video 04.14.19

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $NFLX
  • $BAC
  • $C
  • $GS
  • $UNH
  • $JNJ
  • $APHA
  • $PIXY
  • $SCHW
  • $MTB
  • $PGR
  • $IBM
  • $ABT
  • $MS
  • $PEP
  • $BLK
  • $CMA
  • $TEAM
  • $CSX
  • $KMI
  • $AA
  • $URI
  • $ERIC
  • $WIT
  • $KSU
  • $UAL
  • $PLD
  • $ASML
  • $USB
  • $BK
  • $TXT
  • $FHN
  • $JBHT
  • $ISRG
  • $PNFP
  • $PIR
  • $LVS
  • $MLNX
  • $MBWM
  • $CCI
  • $SKX
  • $BMI
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY MORNING'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 4.15.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 4.15.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 4.16.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 4.16.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 4.17.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 4.17.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 4.18.19 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
N/A.

Thursday 4.18.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
N/A.

Friday 4.19.19 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF GOOD FRIDAY).

Friday 4.19.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF GOOD FRIDAY).

Netflix, Inc. $351.14

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $4.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.56 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.94% with revenue increasing by 21.32%. Short interest has increased by 10.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.2% above its 200 day moving average of $336.83. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,925 contracts of the $400.00 call expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Bank of America Corp. $30.17

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $23.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.84% with revenue decreasing by 14.11%. Short interest has decreased by 25.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.3% above its 200 day moving average of $28.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 9, 2019 there was some notable buying of 32,141 contracts of the $27.00 put and 32,059 contracts of the $32.00 call expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Citigroup, Inc. $67.42

Citigroup, Inc. (C) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.78 per share on revenue of $18.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.95% with revenue decreasing by 22.15%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.2% above its 200 day moving average of $65.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, March 29, 2019 there was some notable buying of 17,657 contracts of the $59.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. $207.84

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:40 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.74 per share on revenue of $8.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.80% with revenue decreasing by 10.62%. Short interest has increased by 9.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.1% below its 200 day moving average of $208.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 6,817 contracts of the $220.00 call and 5,555 contracts of the $195.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

UnitedHealth Group, Inc. $223.22

UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:55 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.59 per share on revenue of $59.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.09% with revenue increasing by 8.10%. Short interest has decreased by 1.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.4% below its 200 day moving average of $257.63. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,190 contracts of the $227.50 call and 3,732 contracts of the $227.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Johnson & Johnson $135.98

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.03 per share on revenue of $19.63 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.46% with revenue decreasing by 1.89%. Short interest has decreased by 22.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.0% above its 200 day moving average of $134.65. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,510 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 1.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aphria Inc. $10.10

Aphria Inc. (APHA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:05 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $41.11 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 26.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 57.1% from its open following the earnings release. On Thursday, April 11, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,595 contracts of the $9.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

ShiftPixy, Inc. $1.20

ShiftPixy, Inc. (PIXY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $14.84 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 88.16%. Short interest has decreased by 14.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 34.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 54.0% below its 200 day moving average of $2.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 27.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Charles Schwab Corp. $45.35

Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:45 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $2.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 20.00% with revenue increasing by 12.59%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.8% below its 200 day moving average of $47.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,000 contracts of the $43.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

M&T Bank Corp $167.76

M&T Bank Corp (MTB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:35 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.29 per share on revenue of $1.50 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.90% with revenue decreasing by 2.65%. Short interest has decreased by 2.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% above its 200 day moving average of $165.09. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 841 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week ahead?
Have a fantastic Sunday and a great trading week ahead to everyone here on StockMarket!
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 15th, 2019

Hey what's happening stocks! Good morning and happy Saturday to all of you on this subreddit. I hope everyone made out pretty nicely in the market last week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 15th, 2019.

Some optimistic corporate outlooks in the week ahead could lift the stock market to a record - (Source)

It’s now up to corporate America to reveal whether the U.S. economy simply hit a soft patch this winter, as many suspect, or is on the verge of falling into an even deeper rut.
Earnings from a broad swath of industries, like financials, technology, transportation and consumer products roll out in the coming week as the first-quarter earnings season gets underway. According to Refinitiv, earnings are expected to decline 2.3 percent in the first negative quarter in three years, but it is business leaders’ comments on the future outlook that are even more important.
Commentary and guidance is always a big deal, but this quarter it is critical. Analysts do not agree on whether the first quarter earnings season represents the trough, or even whether the second quarter will see a gain or decline in profit growth.
At the same time, economic data, like March’s jobs report, are beginning to turn more positive, and first quarter growth has quickly gone from forecasts of nearly flattish back in January to now around 2%, on the back of better March releases. The economic data has been uneven, in part because of the government shutdown, but it has yet to prove the economy is back on track.
“The market has been very sensitive to data that’s been picking up. The market is reflecting that, even though there’s talk of an earnings recession. What you don’t want is an earnings recession leading to an economic recession. If companies believe there’s a major downturn in revenue growth, they stop spending and ultimately they fire people and that leads to a recession,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.
The stock market is also at an important inflection point, with the major indexes closing in on all-time highs. The S&P 500 pressed through 2,900 Friday, seen as a point of psychological resistance. The S&P ended the week at 2,907, for a weekly gain of 0.5%. The next target traders are watching is the closing high 2,930 on the S&P. The all-time high was an intraday 2,940, reached on Sept. 21.
Earnings season got off to a good start with J.P. Morgan Chase’s quarterly earnings report Friday. CEO Jamie Dimon was very positive, saying the U.S. economy’s expansion “could go on for years.”
“If you look at the American economy, the consumer is in good shape, balance sheets are in good shape, people are going back to the workforce, companies have plenty of capital,” Dimon told analysts during a conference call. J.P. Morgan stock rose sharply, after its record profits beat analysts’ expectations.
“Positive guidance, that’s what the market needs. [The S&P] could cross 2,900, but then again it could pull back,” said Krosby, but she said the momentum has been pointing higher. “The market has basically been endorsing 2,900 and beyond.”
Krosby said important upcoming economic reports include Empire State and Philadelphia Fed surveys Monday and Thursday respectively, for a current look at manufacturing activity in New York and the Mid-Atlantic region. There is also industrial production and retail sales Tuesday.
“Jobs data was strong. Everybody was really negative on the economy, and now we’re getting pleasant surprises,” said Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex chief market strategist. The economy added 196,000 jobs in March, bringing the monthly average to 180,000 over the past three months, even with February’s shockingly low 33,000 payrolls.
Chandler said industrial production and other data should show an improved trend over last month.
As stocks have shaken off growth fears, bond yields have also moved higher. The 10-year Treasury note was yielding 2.55% Friday, well above the lows of 2.34% reached on March 28.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR CHART LINK #2!)

Typical April Trading: Mid-Month Surge Stronger Second Half

Over the recent 21 years April is the top-ranked month for DJIA. April ranks #3 S&P 500, #5 for NASDAQ, #2 for Russell 1000 and #4 for Russell 2000. Average gains over the period range from a low of 1.19% by NASDAQ to a respectable 2.29% by DJIA. The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. In fact the second half of April is stronger over the recent 21-year period.
Early April trading is usually positive for the first 4 days then flattens off until mid-month. Then the market tends to surge from the tenth to the fifteenth trading days. DJIA tends to close out the month strongest with NASDAQ closing weakest.
Except for DJIA weighed down by Boeing (BA), stocks are having an above average month so far, which is quite typical in Pre-Election years where April has tended to be even stronger.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Bode Well For Equities

Earlier today on our Twitter account, we retweeted a chart from Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal of inverted Jobless Claims versus the S&P 500. We have used this chart as an argument for the bullish case for the past several years. As we mentioned in a blog post this morning, Initial Jobless Claims came in earlier this week with a sizable drop off, down to 196K versus last week's revised 204K and expectations of 210K. This week's print was not only a new low for the current cycle, it is also the lowest reading since 1969. That sort of new low could be a good sign for equities. As shown in the chart below, claims and the S&P have mirrored each other since bottoming following the financial crisis. (In the chart, we have inverted claims on the right axis.) As the S&P 500 inches its way back towards all time highs, so has claims towards new lows. Additionally, with recent low prints for claims bucking what had previously appeared to be an upside trend reversal, the bullish case for the S&P 500 is growing.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Optimism Growing Again

The American Association of Individual Investors updated their weekly investor sentiment survey this morning and the results are very similar to the final days of February with bullish sentiment around 40%, bearish down near 20%, and neutral once again in the upper 30's. Up from 35.02% last week, bullish sentiment has crossed back over the 40% threshold; the first time it has done so since the previously mentioned week in February. While bullish sentiment is sitting a couple of points above the historical average, this is still several percentage points from reaching any sort of extreme level (more than one standard deviation above the aforementioned average). For that to happen, bullish sentiment would have to come in above 48.36%. If that occurs, then it could be a sign that investors are getting a little too optimistic.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Bearish sentiment, on the other hand, fell all the way back down to 20.38% this week, the lowest since its 20% reading on February 28th. That is around 10% less than the historical average for bearish sentiment. That is also at the lower end of the range bearish sentiment has stayed within in the past decade.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Neutral sentiment has still yet to have moved above or below the upper 30's coming in at 39.33% this week after falling from similar levels down to 36.71% last week. That is the third time in the past month that neutral sentiment has come in between 39% and 40%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The December Low Indicator Has Bulls Smiling

After the best first quarter for the S&P 500 Index since 1998, the big question is: What happens next? We’ve already discussed why a good start to a year could lead to more gains (here and here), but today we will take a look at another potentially positive signal.
The December Low Indicator was created in the 1970s by Lucien Hooper, a former Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst. Simply put, the indicator says that if the S&P 500 closes beneath the December low during the first quarter, it’s a warning sign for potential weakness over the balance of the year. The flipside is if it doesn’t, good times could be coming. Given the S&P 500 just went all of the first quarter without closing beneath the December 24 low, it’s worth taking a deeper dive.
Sure enough, there appears to be some truth to this concept. “The December low indicator seems quite simple, but it has a tremendous track record,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When the S&P 500 stays above the December lows throughout the first quarter, the full year has been higher an incredible 34 out of the last 34 times, which bodes well for 2019.” In fact, this warning even worked last year, as it triggered in the first quarter of 2018 and eventually played out during the big fourth quarter sell-off.
As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, when the S&P 500 stays above the December lows in the first quarter, the full year does quite well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for April 12th, 2019

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET UP!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 04.14.19

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $NFLX
  • $BAC
  • $C
  • $GS
  • $UNH
  • $JNJ
  • $APHA
  • $PIXY
  • $SCHW
  • $MTB
  • $PGR
  • $IBM
  • $ABT
  • $MS
  • $PEP
  • $BLK
  • $CMA
  • $TEAM
  • $CSX
  • $KMI
  • $AA
  • $URI
  • $ERIC
  • $WIT
  • $KSU
  • $UAL
  • $PLD
  • $ASML
  • $USB
  • $BK
  • $TXT
  • $FHN
  • $JBHT
  • $ISRG
  • $PNFP
  • $PIR
  • $LVS
  • $MLNX
  • $MBWM
  • $CCI
  • $SKX
  • $BMI
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY MORNING'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 4.15.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 4.15.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 4.16.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 4.16.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 4.17.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 4.17.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 4.18.19 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
N/A.

Thursday 4.18.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
N/A.

Friday 4.19.19 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF GOOD FRIDAY).

Friday 4.19.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF GOOD FRIDAY).

Netflix, Inc. $351.14

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $4.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.56 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.94% with revenue increasing by 21.32%. Short interest has increased by 10.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.2% above its 200 day moving average of $336.83. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,925 contracts of the $400.00 call expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Bank of America Corp. $30.17

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $23.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.84% with revenue decreasing by 14.11%. Short interest has decreased by 25.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.3% above its 200 day moving average of $28.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 9, 2019 there was some notable buying of 32,141 contracts of the $27.00 put and 32,059 contracts of the $32.00 call expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Citigroup, Inc. $67.42

Citigroup, Inc. (C) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.78 per share on revenue of $18.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.95% with revenue decreasing by 22.15%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.2% above its 200 day moving average of $65.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, March 29, 2019 there was some notable buying of 17,657 contracts of the $59.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. $207.84

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:40 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.74 per share on revenue of $8.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.80% with revenue decreasing by 10.62%. Short interest has increased by 9.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.1% below its 200 day moving average of $208.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 6,817 contracts of the $220.00 call and 5,555 contracts of the $195.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

UnitedHealth Group, Inc. $223.22

UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:55 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.59 per share on revenue of $59.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.09% with revenue increasing by 8.10%. Short interest has decreased by 1.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.4% below its 200 day moving average of $257.63. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,190 contracts of the $227.50 call and 3,732 contracts of the $227.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Johnson & Johnson $135.98

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.03 per share on revenue of $19.63 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.46% with revenue decreasing by 1.89%. Short interest has decreased by 22.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.0% above its 200 day moving average of $134.65. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,510 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 1.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Aphria Inc. $10.10

Aphria Inc. (APHA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:05 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $41.11 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 26.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 57.1% from its open following the earnings release. On Thursday, April 11, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,595 contracts of the $9.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

ShiftPixy, Inc. $1.20

ShiftPixy, Inc. (PIXY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $14.84 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 88.16%. Short interest has decreased by 14.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 34.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 54.0% below its 200 day moving average of $2.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 27.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Charles Schwab Corp. $45.35

Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:45 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $2.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 20.00% with revenue increasing by 12.59%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.8% below its 200 day moving average of $47.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,000 contracts of the $43.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

M&T Bank Corp $167.76

M&T Bank Corp (MTB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:35 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.29 per share on revenue of $1.50 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.90% with revenue decreasing by 2.65%. Short interest has decreased by 2.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% above its 200 day moving average of $165.09. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 841 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week ahead?
Have a fantastic Sunday and a great trading week ahead to everyone here on stocks!
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

Stock Market Week Ahead for the trading week beginning February 4th, 2019 (News, Earnings, etc.)

Hey what's up stocks! Good morning and happy Sunday to all of you on this subreddit. I hope everyone made out pretty decent last week in the market, and are ready for the new trading week ahead! :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning February 4th, 2019.

Jobs report removes some fear, but market still in 'tug of war' over how much growth is slowing - (Source)

After January's strong jobs report calmed some recession fears, investors will be picking through the next wave of earnings reports and economic data for clues on just how much the U.S. economy could be slowing.
Dozens of earnings, from companies like Alphabet, Disney and Eli Lily, report in the week ahead, and there are just a few economic reports like trade data and ISM services on Tuesday. Investors will also be watching the outcome of Treasury auctions for $84 billion in Treasury notes and bonds Tuesday through Thursday, after the Fed's dovish tone helped put a lid on interest rates in the past week.
Nearly half the S&P 500 companies had reported for the fourth quarter by Friday morning, and 71 percent beat earnings estimates, while 62 percent have beaten revenue estimates. But earnings growth forecasts for the first quarter continue to decline as more companies report, and they are currently barely breaking even at under 1 percent growth, versus the 15 percent growth in the fourth quarter, according to Refinitiv.
"Granted the more we hear from companies, and particularly in terms of their guidance and projections on revenues, things can slowly change. The first thing companies do is they stop spending money. Cap spending slows down, and if revenue growth does not pick up, they let people go. This is still wait and see," said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.
Krosby said the 304,000 jobs added in January did ease some concerns about a slowing economy, as did a stronger than expected ISM manufacturing report Friday. But the view of the first quarter is still unclear, as many economic reports were missed during the government shutdown. Economists expect growth in the first quarter of just above 2 percent, after growth of about 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter.
Stocks closed out January with a sharp gain on Thursday, and started February on Friday on a flattish note. The S&P 500 has rebounded about 15 percent from its Dec. 24 closing low. Last month's 7.9 percent gain was the best performance for January in more than 30 years. The old Wall Street adage says 'so goes January, so goes the year.' If that holds, stocks could finish 2019 higher. But February is another story, and on average, it is a flat month for the S&P 500.
"The tug of war that you saw in the market, that was going on in the last half of last year is playing out in the data. Some of the data is a bit lower, but some of the economic surprises are picking up to the upside rather than downside," said Krosby.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the ISM may have improved but it reflected very low exports and flat backlogs, even though there was a snap back in new orders.
"I would fade the jobs report," said Boockvar, noting the level of growth may have been inflated by government workers taking on part-time jobs during the government shutdown.
Boocvkar said the jobs report also looked strong on the surface, but he's concerned the unemployment rate ticked up to 4 percent from 3.9 percent.
"The question of whether we go into a recession or not is how does the stock market affect confidence?" Boockvar said. Confidence readings in the past week were low, and consumer sentiment Friday was its lowest since before President Donald Trump took office.
Krosby said stocks could test recent lows or put in a higher low. If there's a big selloff, "That would not necessarily mean it was a clue a recession is coming. It's just a normal testing mechanism," she said.
The Fed removed a big concern from the markets in the past week, when its post-meeting statement and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's briefing tilted dovish, assuring markets the Fed would pause in its interest rate hiking. Investors had feared the Fed would hurt the softening economy with its rate hikes. Now, the biggest fears are about the trade war between the U.S. and China and slowing Chinese growth.
The jobs report, and the ISM manufacturing data were also important because the lack of data during the government's 35 day shutdown has left gaps in the economic picture.
"This is really a sign the Fed stole the thunder from the economic data. By saying they're patient plasters over any kind of economic data in the near term, and I suspect the near term lasts through the first quarter because of the government shutdown, the weather, weak GDP," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.
Chandler said the markets will be hanging on any news on the trade talks with China. "Even if it's not the all encompassing trade deal we were promised, it's a return to where we were before with China promising to buy energy and farm products. We'll continue to have some kind of talks with the China, like we had under Obama and Bush," said Chandler.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR CHART LINK #2!)

Now What?

What a year it has been. After the worst December for stocks in 87 years that contributed to the worst fourth quarter since the 2008–09 financial crisis, stocks have bounced back in spectacular fashion. In fact, with a day to go, stocks are looking at their best first month of the year in 30 years.
What could happen next? “We like to say that the easy 10% has been made off the lows and the next 10% will be much tougher,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Things like Fed policy, China uncertainty, and overall global growth concerns all will play a part in where equity markets go from here.”
With the S&P 500 Index about 10% away from new highs, we do think new highs are quite possible at some point this year. Positive news from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and China trade talks, as well as the realization by investors that the odds of a recession in 2019 are quite low could spark potential new highs. Remember, fiscal spending as a percentage of overall gross domestic product (GDP) is higher this year than it was last year. Many think the tax cut and fiscal policies in play last year were a one-time sugar high. We don’t see it that way and expect the benefits from fiscal policy to help extend this economic cycle at least another year—likely more.
As we head into February, note that it hasn’t been one of the best months for stocks. In fact, as our LPL Chart of the Day shows, since 1950, February has been virtually flat, and over the past 20 years only June and September have shown worse returns. Overall, the market gains have been quite impressive since the December 24 lows, but we wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a near-term consolidation or pullback.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A Fed Pause and the Flattening Yield Curve

Investors have increasingly positioned for a Federal Reserve (Fed) pause, which could portend a shift in fixed income markets. Fed fund futures are pricing in about a 70% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2019, and the market’s dovish tilt has weighed on short-term rates.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 2-year yield has typically followed the fed funds rate since policymakers began raising rates in December 2015. While we expect one or two more hikes this cycle, there is a possibility that the Fed’s December hike was its last, which will likely cap short-term rates.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Short-term yields have outpaced longer-term yields over the past few years, flattening the yield curve and raising concerns that U.S. economic progress may not be able to keep up with the Fed’s tightening. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year yield has fallen negative before every single U.S. recession since 1970.
If the Fed pauses, the curve will likely reverse course and steepen as solid economic growth and quickening (but manageable) inflation drives longer-term yields higher. As mentioned in our Outlook 2019, FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets, we’re forecasting the 10-year Treasury yield will increase significantly from current levels and trade within a range of 3.25–3.75% in 2019.
“We remain optimistic about U.S. economic growth prospects, and recent data show inflation remains at manageable levels,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “Because of this, we expect the data-dependent Fed to be less aggressive than initially feared, as policymakers juggle these factors with the impacts of trade tensions and tepid global growth.”
To be clear, investors shouldn’t fear a flattening yield curve given the backdrop of solid economic growth and modest inflation. Historically, the yield curve has remained relatively flat or inverted for years before some recessions started. Since 1970, the United States has entered a recession an average of 21 months after the yield curve inverted.

Jobless Claims’ Historic Significance

Jobless claims have dropped to a 49-year low. Based on historical trends, this could signal that a U.S. economic recession is further off than many expect.
Data released January 24 showed jobless claims fell to 199K in the week ending January 18, the lowest number since 1969 and far below consensus estimates of 218K. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, current jobless claims have been significantly lower than those in the 12-month periods preceding each recession since the early 1970s.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Jobless claims have fallen out of the spotlight as the economic cycle has matured, but they could prove important again as investors’ recessionary fears increase. While most labor-market data serve as lagging indicators of U.S. economic health, jobless claims are a leading indicator. Historically, a 75–100K increase in claims over a 26-week period has been associated with a recession.
“Last week’s jobless claims print was particularly impressive given the partial government shutdown and weakening corporate sentiment,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “The U.S. labor market remains strong and will help buoy consumer health and output growth this year.”
Other predictive data sets have signaled U.S. recessionary odds are low. Data last week showed the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), based on 10 leading economic indicators (like jobless claims, manufacturers’ new orders, and stock prices), grew 4.3% year over year in December. In contrast, the LEI has turned negative year over year before all economic recessions since 1970. Because of its solid predictive ability, the LEI is a component of our Recession Watch Dashboard.

Best S&P January Since 1987

Most major U.S. stock indexes rallied to new recovery and year-to-date highs today shrugging off some misses and weakness from Microsoft, DuPont and Visa. S&P 500 finished the month strong with a 7.9% gain. This is the best S&P January since 1987. This is also the third January Trifecta in a row.
Last year the S&P 500 crumbled in the fourth quarter under the weight of triple threats from a hawkish and confusing Fed, a newly divided Congress and the U.S. trade battle with China, finishing in the red. 2017’s Trifecta was followed by a full-year gain of 19.4%, including a February-December gain of 17.3%. As you can see in the table below, the long term track record of the Trifecta is rather impressive, posting full-year gains in 27 of the 30 prior years with an average gain for the S&P 500 of 17.1%.
Devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, the January Barometer has registered ten major errors since 1950 for an 85.5% accuracy ratio. This indicator adheres to propensity that as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. Of the ten major errors Vietnam affected 1966 and 1968. 1982 saw the start of a major bull market in August. Two January rate cuts and 9/11 affected 2001.The market in January 2003 was held down by the anticipation of military action in Iraq. The second worst bear market since 1900 ended in March of 2009 and Federal Reserve intervention influenced 2010 and 2014. In 2016, DJIA slipped into an official Ned Davis bear market in January. Including the eight flat years yields a .739 batting average.
Our January Indicator Trifecta combines the Santa Claus Rally, the First Five Days Early Warning System and our full-month January Barometer. The predicative power of the three is considerably greater than any of them alone; we have been rather impressed by its forecasting prowess. This is the 31st time since 1949 that all three January Indicators have been positive and the twelfth time (previous eleven times highlighted in grey in table below) this has occurred in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
With the Fed turning more dovish and President Trump tacking to the center and meeting with China and market internals improving along with the gains, the market is tracking Base Case and Best Case scenarios outlined in our 2019 Annual Forecast. Next eleven month and full-year 2019 performance is expected to be more in line with typical Pre-Election returns.

February Almanac: Small-Caps Tend to Outperform

Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is not all that stellar. February ranks no better than seventh and has posted paltry average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.1% in February since 1979—just the seventh best month for that benchmark.
In pre-election years, February’s performance generally improves with average returns all positive. NASDAQ performs best, gaining an average 2.8% in pre-election-year Februarys since 1971. Russell 2000 is second best, averaging gains of 2.5% since 1979. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000, the large-cap indices, tend to lag with average advances of around 1.0%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

5% Months

7%? Bulls will take it! After an abysmal December, the S&P 500 is currently set to finish the month with its best January return since 1987. This month’s gain will mark the 16th time since the lows of the Financial Crisis in March 2009 that the S&P 500 has rallied more than 5% in a given month. The table below highlights each of the 15 prior months where the S&P 500 rallied more than 5% and shows how much the S&P 500 gained on the month as well as its performance on the last trading day of the month and the first trading day of the subsequent month.
When looking at the table, a few things stand out. First, the first trading day of a month that follows a month where the S&P 500 rallied more than 5% has been extremely positive as the S&P 500 averages a gain of 0.84% (median: 1.01%) with positive returns 13 out of 15 times! In addition to the positive tendency of markets on the first day of the new month, there has also been a clear tendency for the S&P 500 to decline on the last trading day of the strong month. The average decline on the last trading day of a strong month has been 0.09% with positive returns less than half of the time. This is no doubt related to the fact that funds are forced to rebalance out of equities to get back inline with their benchmark weights. However, on those five prior months where the S&P 500 bucked the trend and was positive on the last trading day of a 5%+ month, the average gain on the first trading day of the next month was even stronger at 1.52% with gains five out of six times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for February 1st, 2019

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET UP!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 2.3.19

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading month ahead-
  • $GOOGL
  • $TWTR
  • $SNAP
  • $CLF
  • $TTWO
  • $ALXN
  • $DIS
  • $BP
  • $CLX
  • $SYY
  • $GM
  • $GILD
  • $CMG
  • $GRUB
  • $EA
  • $STX
  • $SPOT
  • $AMG
  • $SAIA
  • $RL
  • $CNC
  • $EL
  • $UFI
  • $GLUU
  • $MTSC
  • $JOUT
  • $PM
  • $GPRO
  • $LITE
  • $FEYE
  • $SWKS
  • $LLY
  • $MPC
  • $BDX
  • $REGN
  • $VIAB
  • $ONVO
  • $HUM
  • $ARRY
  • $PBI
  • $ADM
  • $BSAC
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S BIGGEST DECLINE IN EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST INCREASE IN EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 2.4.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 2.4.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 2.5.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Tuesday 2.5.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Wednesday 2.6.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 2.6.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Thursday 2.7.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)

Thursday 2.7.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Friday 2.8.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 2.8.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Alphabet, Inc. -

Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, February 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $11.08 per share on revenue of $31.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $11.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 14.23% with revenue decreasing by 3.23%. Short interest has decreased by 6.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.7% below its 200 day moving average of $1,127.05. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 24, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,493 contracts of the $1,200.00 call expiring on Friday, February 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Twitter, Inc. $33.19

Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, February 7, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $871.59 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 38.89% with revenue increasing by 19.14%. Short interest has decreased by 54.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.1% below its 200 day moving average of $34.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, December 31, 2018 there was some notable buying of 45,575 contracts of the $34.00 call expiring on Friday, March 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 13.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Snap Inc. $6.91

Snap Inc. (SNAP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, February 5, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $376.64 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.04) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 31% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $355.00 million to $380.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 27.27% with revenue increasing by 31.83%. Short interest has decreased by 1.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.6% below its 200 day moving average of $10.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 3, 2019 there was some notable buying of 29,739 contracts of the $7.00 call expiring on Friday, February 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 15.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 19.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc $10.53

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Friday, February 8, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $713.61 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.63 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 87% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 119.23% with revenue increasing by 18.76%. Short interest has increased by 4.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 9.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.2% above its 200 day moving average of $9.47. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, January 7, 2019 there was some notable buying of 10,030 contracts of the $8.00 call expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. $104.95

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, February 6, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.72 per share on revenue of $1.46 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.82 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.31 to $0.41 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 106.06% with revenue increasing by 203.64%. Short interest has increased by 37.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 18.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% below its 200 day moving average of $116.52. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 23, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,067 contracts of the $120.00 call expiring on Friday, February 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. $126.28

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALXN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:35 AM ET on Monday, February 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.82 per share on revenue of $1.06 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 23.81% with revenue increasing by 16.52%. Short interest has decreased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.8% above its 200 day moving average of $119.40. On Friday, February 1, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,235 contracts of the $130.00 call expiring on Friday, February 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Walt Disney Co $111.30

Walt Disney Co (DIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, February 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.57 per share on revenue of $15.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.62 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.93% with revenue decreasing by 1.11%. Short interest has increased by 7.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.9% above its 200 day moving average of $109.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, February 1, 2019 there was some notable buying of 8,822 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, February 8, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BP p.l.c $41.34

BP p.l.c (BP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:25 AM ET on Tuesday, February 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.77 per share on revenue of $60.72 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 20.31% with revenue decreasing by 13.28%. Short interest has increased by 6.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.9% below its 200 day moving average of $43.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 17, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,010 contracts of the $33.00 put expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Clorox Co. $149.86

Clorox Co. (CLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, February 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.32 per share on revenue of $1.48 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.32% with revenue increasing by 4.52%. Short interest has decreased by 9.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.9% above its 200 day moving average of $141.57. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 18, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,025 contracts of the $152.50 put expiring on Friday, February 8, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

SYSCO Corp. $63.57

SYSCO Corp. (SYY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, February 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.72 per share on revenue of $14.85 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.09% with revenue increasing by 3.04%. Short interest has decreased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.6% below its 200 day moving average of $67.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, February 1, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,691 contracts of the $66.00 call expiring on Friday, February 8, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week ahead?
Have a fantastic Sunday and a great trading week ahead to all here on stocks! ;)
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

Automate the trading the Forex Weekend gap when Brokers close using proven Forex Market behaviour Forex market hours clock  Forex time zone converter[Forex Toolbox] Lesson 11: Market Opening Hours Lesson 14: What are the best times of day for trading forex? What Does Forex Market Hours - Forex Market Time Converter ...

The forex market is open 24 hours a day in different parts of the world, from 5 p.m. EST on Sunday until 4 p.m. EST on Friday. The ability of the forex to trade over a 24-hour period is due in ... Even though in theory the currency market never closes, it is extremely hard to see someone trading on a Sunday. A beginner may even feel the trading activity has come to a halt because of Forex brokers who take a break on weekends. However, it is not the case as explained below. For more information on the forex market, forex is what largest financial marketplace in the world. Also take notice that in between each forex trading session, and sunday closures affecting the world’s does markets. At any point in time — it open forex massive network of electronically on banks, weeks and sometimes several months. With the Forex market you could get home at 6:00pm, or even 10:00pm, open up your charts and trade. There is no daily rush to open or close trades before the market closes, because it doesn’t close. There are no daily price gaps when the market opens, because it doesn’t close. Even on bank holidays the Forex market doesn’t close. Banks (and forex brokers) would not have full services and benefits. Mostly brokers are also not available on holidays. On Forex holidays you see low liquidity on market. But after the market opening, activity can rise strongly. This page contains the list of Forex holidays (2020 year) and observances around the world . Bank Holidays Calendar 2020

[index] [123] [375] [5529] [3217] [2049] [4067] [4601] [3433] [3072] [1069]

Automate the trading the Forex Weekend gap when Brokers close using proven Forex Market behaviour

The major forex trading hours and forex trading sessions explained in detail for you. Aside from the forex time zones, I also want to talk about the forex ma... Get more information about IG US by visiting their website: https://www.ig.com/us/future-of-forex Get my trading strategies here: https://www.robbooker.com C... Click To This Article: https://bit.ly/3aczOfv - What Does Forex Market Hours - Forex Market Time Converter Mean? Delight in the totally free live currency qu... Forex Market Hours - Best Time To Trade While it is true that the Forex currency market is open 24 hours a day , that does not mean that you have the same activity throughout the day . #forextrading #forex #forexeducation In this video we start to break down how the weekly cycles are created and how the mindset changes as each day is reveal...

#